A warehouse can hold its asking rent while the cash behind the lease shrinks. In Rancho Cucamonga, count what survives the free months.
Cushman & Wakefield reports 8.8% Inland Empire industrial vacancy in Q2 2026, up half a percentage point in three months.
That is its regional survey, not a Rancho block. [1]
Kidder Mathews’ city table records 7.2% total vacancy in Rancho, 12.0% in Fontana and 3.1% in Upland. Different negotiating rooms. [2]
Four cities. Four rent conversations.
| City | Total vacancy | Direct asking rent, monthly NNN/SF | Q2 direct net absorption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rancho Cucamonga | 7.2% | $1.08 | +415,265 SF |
| Ontario | 7.3% | $1.08 | +565,348 SF |
| Fontana | 12.0% | $0.96 | −1,310,764 SF |
| Upland | 3.1% | $0.91 | +1,152 SF |
Source: Kidder Mathews, Q2 2026; underlying data: CoStar and EDD. Total vacancy includes sublet space. These citywide averages are not property quotations. [2]
Rancho gained occupied space while Fontana lost it. An individual warehouse still competes on size, loading, lease length and the tenant’s actual alternatives.
Arrow Route has its own arithmetic
Near Arrow Route and Etiwanda Avenue, the Newcastle Arrow Route environmental-review file describes a proposed 334,776-square-foot warehouse with 44 trailer spaces.
The record places it in Rancho Cucamonga. It does not establish completion or a signed lease. [3]
Proposed projects, signed leases awaiting occupancy and empty buildings available now belong in different “competing supply” columns.
Which can your prospect occupy on its deadline? A regional total cannot answer that.
Vacancy is only one column
CBRE’s separate Q2 survey recorded 5.9% vacancy in Inland Empire West and 10.7% availability.
Available space can be occupied or vacant under its definitions. [4]
West asking rent averaged $1.17 per square foot monthly NNN; the taking rate averaged $1.11.
CBRE revised submarket boundaries in early 2026. Do not splice its figures into another firm’s city table as though both count identical buildings. [4]
Colliers recorded 16.7 million square feet of gross activity in Q2, a quarterly record, while Inland Empire asking rents slipped to $0.99 NNN.
More signatures and softer pricing can coexist. [5]
Put the concession in dollars
A hypothetical 20,000-square-foot lease at $1.08 per square foot monthly produces $21,600 a month, or $259,200 annually, in base rent.
Three free months remove $64,800.
Over a flat five-year term, average collected base rent falls to $1.026 per square foot monthly, before commissions, tenant allowances or other costs.
Put all three free months in year one, and that year’s collected base rent falls to $194,400. The asking headline still says $1.08.
These are arithmetic examples, not reported Rancho concessions. They assume no increases and exclude reimbursements and operating expenses. Base rent is not NOI.
Three extra months empty also remove $64,800 at that assumed rent, before carrying costs. Rejecting a concession leaves the vacancy bill intact.
Compare dated cash schedules: commencement, free rent, allowances, increases and commissions. Otherwise, “better rent” may just be the flattering number on page one.
The price of three free months.
Hypothetical 20,000 SF lease · $1.08/SF/month
Free rent Collected base rent
Assumes all three free months fall in year one, flat rent and no other costs or reimbursements. Collected base rent is not NOI.
— Mara Vega, editorial pen name
The source file.
Checked September 9, 2026. Financial examples are hypothetical. This is document-based analysis, not a claim of interviews, site visits or a property-specific legal determination.
KEEP READING
Rancho Cucamonga’s lawn bill is coming due.
On Arrow Route, the date in the file can change the deal.